PROGNOSIS OF MILK-PRODUCTION AND PURCHASE

The study has been aimed at showing the importance and utilization of prognosis regarding milk production and purchase and the major factors affecting milk production and purchase, and some methods, relations, dependences utilizable in prognostic activity. The total milk production and purchase are limited mainly by numbers of cows and their performance. These indicators are affected by the whole number of other factors acting in the sphere of primary production, and in the sphere of market, as well. In the sphere of agriculture this is the case of provision of feed base, economic parameters (costs of cow breeding, prices of inputs, producers' prices, etc.), organization and management of labour, development of herd replacement, parameters of reproduction and others. In the sphere of market milk and milk products sale is a decisive factor. This factor, too, is a result of action of a lot of other influences, e.g. consumer prices of milk and milk products, buying power of inhabitants, competition of another producers, quality of products, etc. All these factors are to be analyzed in prognostic activity and to consider their actions. A successful prognosis is conditioned, however, by a sufficient number of parameters and figures on initial known period. Month variation of milk production and purchase manifests a seasonal character (effect of season and length of calendar months). Relations between month shares of milk purchase in the Czech Republic in the years 1989 to 1991, in the countries of European Community and in the Federal Republic of Germany, express significant values of correlation coefficients (r = 0.862 to 0.988, P < 0.01). They can be used for this reason for estimation of the development of this parameter in the prognostic period. Higher repeatibitity of curves of monthly shares of milk purchases in European Community countries and in the FRG is evidently affected positively by contigentation of milk purchase and mostly by long-term operating market conditions. Based on simple analysis of the current situation with cow breeding and its development in the past three years and with considering some factors, the total milk production is estimated to 3,555 million litres, milk purchase by milk factories to 2,985 million litres. The highest milk production and purchase can be expected in June and July, the lowest one in November and February. In the present phase of our agriculture, i.e. at the development of market conditions and proprietal changes of enterprises, economic problems, lower demand for agricultural products, and others, a reliable prognostics of productional and economic parameters of animal production was influenced negatively by a lack of reliable statistical parameters for the past period and frequent changes in productional and economic conditions. With the development of market conditions higher ''demand'' for information of good quality of this kind so in cattle breeders, as in above-enterprise authorities and organizations (authorities of agricultural management, agrarian union, breeding associations and unions, processing plants, the Fund of Market Regulation, etc.). For the above reasons, except for introduction of application of suitable prognostic models and methods, it is necessary to pay an appropriate attention to the obtaining of reliable statistical data.