BOARD-CERTIFIED PHYSICIANS IN THE UNITED-STATES, 1971-1986

Background. This is our third report covering the census of U. S. physicians over a 15-year period. The present report updates the information for 1980 to 1986. Methods. Most of our data are based on published information from the Association of American Medical Colleges, the Educational Council for Foreign Medical Graduates, the American Board of Medical Specialities, and the National Resident Matching Program. Data on board-certified physicians were obtained from the Division of Survey and Data Resources of the American Medical Association and are not published elsewhere. Results. After a steep rise in the 1970s, the annual number of physicians receiving licenses increased at a slower rate. The numbers of new board diplomas in medicine and primary care continued to grow. In other non-surgical clinical specialities there was less growth, and in certain fields of surgery the numbers declined. The board-certified percentage of all practitioners increased slightly (74 to 79 percent). About 14 to 16 percent of all active physicians are still in their residency and fellowship years. The percentage of all practitioners under the age of 35 who are women has increased from 8.4 percent in 1967 to 25.2 percent in 1986. The enrollment of some residency programs is currently more than 50 percent women. Conclusions. The work force of physicians did not grow as rapidly in the 1980s as in the 1970s. This nonlinearity of growth and massive changes in the epidemiology and treatment of disease render predictions about the need for or the numbers of physicians a decade hence unreliable.