EVALUATING THE RISKS - A BERNOULLI PROCESS MODEL OF HIV-INFECTION AND RISK REDUCTION

The lifespan sexual history of many Americans can be modeled as a series of long-term monogamous relationships coupled with some number of brief affairs. Implicit in this model is the assumption that these monogamous relationships arise as a natural consequence of the search for a single partner with whom to share one's life, and therefore cannot be eliminated. Hence the only opportunity to reduce the number of sexual partners is by decreasing the number of short-term relationships. In contrast, condoms can be used in all relationships, regardless of the expected duration. But which is more effective at reducing the risk of HIV infection, the consistent use of condoms or decreasing the number of short-term sexual partners? This article employs a Bernoulli process model of HIV transmission to evaluate the infection risks associated with various sexual behavior patterns in an attempt to answer such questions.