Problems With Election Surveys

The article identifies the most important controversies related to public opinion polls on electoral preferences, explains their substance, and discusses its impact on the possibility to use information obtained in the surveys. The article further focuses on the importance of surveys for representative democracy, the impact of the publication of opinion polls' results on public opinion, the possibilities of manipulating surveys, the risks related to the growth of research production (high non-response rate and the growth of survey costs, non-transparency of the market, incorrect application of advanced data analyses), the limits to election forecasting, and issues related to the relationship between research and journalism. Opinion polls contribute to shaping the environment for political competition. The nature of their impact is determined by their quality. Serious risks are associated with the possibility for intentional manipulation, poor quality of the survey process, and misinterpretation of results. Knowledge on research, publication of contextual information together with the survey data, and free competition in the market can help reduce the risks. The possibilities for quantification in social research do not remove the obligation to ensure sound theoretical grounding and qualified judgment, which are the prerequisites for the credibility of all conclusions drawn from the data.