BAYES RELIABILITY MODELING OF A MULTISTATE CONSECUTIVE K-OUT-OF-N, F-SYSTEM

The paper describes Bayes reliability modeling of a multistate consecutive k-out-of-n: F System, comprising independent identical multistate units, with P(c) a unit state probabilities vector. The mathematical expression for the Conditional-System-Unreliability (CSU) is derived by Markov chain. A Bayesian approach is adopted in order to reflect uncertainty in P(c). It is modeled by a Dirichlet distribution and propogated into CSU. A concluding example is provided in Section 5. The proposed model provides Bayesian prediction tools for the mean values and confidence bounds of the system failure states probabilities.