THE PREDICTION OF OUTCOME IN SCHIZOPHRENIA .4. 11-YEAR-FOLLOW-UP OF THE WASHINGTON IPSS COHORT

Two- and five-year follow-up observations of the International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia's Washington cohort provided data bearing on several controversial issues regarding the course of schizophrenia. Forty schizophrenic patients have now been observed 11 years after their index admission. Social, occupational, hospital utilization, and symptom areas of functioning continue to be only modestly correlated with one another and do not become increasingly uniform over time. Initial prognostic variables continue to be more predictive of long-term outcome than are cross-sectional symptom manifestations. Restricted affect at the initial evaluation had been a predictor of 5-year outcome, but it was not a significant predictor of outcome at 11 years. While serious long-term consequences of illness are observed, the follow-up data suggest that the illness tends to reach a plateau of psychopathology early in the course, with as many patients tending to improve in the long-term as those who tend to show further deterioration.