Value of information analysis in rock engineering: a case study of a tunnel project in Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory

被引：11

作者：

Zetterlund, Miriam S. ^{[1
]}

Norberg, Tommy ^{[2
]}

Ericsson, Lars O. ^{[1
]}

Norrman, Jenny ^{[1
]}

Rosen, Lars ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Gothenburg, Sweden

[2] Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Math Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden

来源：

GEORISK-ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF RISK FOR ENGINEERED SYSTEMS AND GEOHAZARDS | 2015年 / 9卷 / 01期

关键词：

Bayesian methods; construction cost; decision analyses; probabilistic site characterization and modelling; underground construction;

D O I：

10.1080/17499518.2014.1001401

中图分类号：

P5 [地质学];

学科分类号：

0709 ; 081803 ;

摘要：

Geoengineering prognoses are often based on data from a limited number of investigations of soil and rock mass. There is generally a desire to reduce the uncertainty in the prognoses while minimising the investigation costs. Value of Information Analysis (VOIA) is a support for decisions regarding investigation strategies and the aim of this paper is to present methodology for VOIA that takes into account four decision alternatives where the input data could be provided by experts. The methodology will be applied in a case study where the value of information related to an investigation borehole will be calculated. The results indicate that the value of information of the borehole is low compared with the realisation costs of the investigation. It was found that models for VOIA in underground construction projects are complex but that the analysis can be simplified with extensive use of expert knowledge and calculations of the value of perfect information as a benchmark for investigation strategies.

引用

页码：9 / 24

页数：16

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