First-Trimester Abdominal Adipose Tissue Thickness to Predict Gestational Diabetes

Objective: To estimate the discriminative capacity of first-trimester subcutaneous (SATT), visceral (VATT), and total (TATT) adipose tissue thickness in predicting gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), including that requiring insulin. Methods: We prospectively recruited a cohort of 1048 nulliparous women. Ultrasound images were used to determine abdominal SATT. VATT, and TATT at 11 to 14 weeks' gestation. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to predict GDM, as well as insulin-requiring GDM. Model discrimination was expressed as area under the curve (AUC). Results: SATT (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.59-0.73), VATT (AUC 0.65, 95% CI 0.58-0.73), and TATT (AUG 0.68, 95% CI 0.61-0.76) were each associated with subsequent GDM. The respective AUC values for insulin-requiring GDM were 0.70 (95% Cl 0.61-0.79), 0.73 (95% Cl 0.65-0.82), and 0.76 (95% Cl 0.67-0.84). At a false-positive rate of 10%, the detection rate for insulin-requiring GDM was 19% for maternal age >= 35 years, 31% for a BMI >= 31.6 kg/m(2), and 31% for TATT >= 61 mm, increasing to 42% in the model comprising all three measures. Conclusion: First-trimester ultrasound measurement of adipose tissue is associated with a higher chance of developing GDM, especially insulin-requiring GDM.