Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record

被引：145

作者：

Easterling, David R. ^{[1
]}

Kunkel, Kenneth E. ^{[2
]}

Wehner, Michael E. ^{[3
]}

Sun, Liqiang ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] NOAA, Ctr Weather & Climate, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Asheville, NC 28801 USA

[2] NC State Univ, Cooperat Inst Climate & Satellites, NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Asheville, NC USA

[3] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA

来源：

WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES | 2016年 / 11卷

关键词：

Observed climate change; Extremes; Detection; Attribution;

D O I：

10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.001

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

We present an overview of practices and challenges related to the detection and attribution of observed changes in climate extremes. Detection is the identification of a statistically significant change in the extreme values of a climate variable over some period of time. Issues in detection discussed include data quality, coverage, and completeness. Attribution takes that detection of a change and uses climate model simulations to evaluate whether a cause can be assigned to that change. Additionally, we discuss a newer field of attribution, event attribution, where individual extreme events are analyzed for the express purpose of assigning some measure of whether that event was directly influenced by anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. Published by Elsevier B.V.

引用

页码：17 / 27

页数：11

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