CRISIS IN TECHNOLOGY - THE QUESTIONABLE UNITED-STATES ABILITY TO MANUFACTURE THIN-FILM MULTICHIP MODULES

The technology choices are available, but the ability to procure MCM-D multichip modules in the U.S. is seriously threatened by the inability to obtain volume orders. The result is the withdrawal of capital at just the time when the capabilities are more and more certain. Laminated multichip technology is able to deliver assemblies at low cost for the modest densities needed for many commercial applications, and for computing speeds less than 75 megahertz. Deposited dielectric technology, which can deliver at the same low costs for volume orders, has insufficient volume orders, except perhaps at AT&T. Only deposited dielectric multichip modules can be used at system cycle speeds over 200 MHz. Only thin-film multichip modules can perform at those frequencies-wafer scale has too much area and signal delays too great for consideration. But future capability may not exist in the necessary thin-film multichip module technology if the companies with capability fold before volume orders are placed. A radical prescription is offered to stimulate volume production of thin-film MCM's and thus avoid a duplication of the problems of manufacturing the Group III fax machines. Default in that market resulted in a major fiasco. MCM-D should not be allowed to fail with a similar technology loss.