DIVISIVE NOMINATING MECHANISMS AND DEMOCRATIC-PARTY ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

The purpose of this article is to explore the effect of divisive nominating campaigns within the Democratic party on the party's success in presidential elections. Divisiveness is defined as a function of the nominating method and the margin of victory. The individual and combined effects of each variable on Democratic party success is measured through bivariate, multivariate, and probit analyses. The results show that divisiveness hurts the Democratic party's prospects for winning the general election after controlling for state party orientation and incumbency. Democrats are more likely to lose states that use a divisive nominating mechanism (presidential primary) and win states that use a nondivisive mechanism (caucus). Moreover, among presidential primary states, divisiveness predicted upon margin of victory is strongly related to outcomes. Democrats are more likely to win primary states decided by wide margins and lose those states decided by narrow margins. The analysis covers every presidential primary, caucus, and general election outcome in individual states from 1932 to 1992.