POSSIBLE ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF THE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT ON THE NORTHERN-TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA

A preliminary description of the likely impact of the greenhouse effect on the ecology of the Northern Territory, Australia, is presented. By using the results of a regional model (CSIRO4) of greenhouse-induced climatic change, the possible pattern of the climate in the Northern Territory for the year 2030 is described. Some of the ecological consequences of this change are discussed. These ecological impacts include vegetation changes in the tropical 'Top End' of the region due to coastal inundation; the possibility of alterations to the current agricultural crops near Darwin, and further extreme climatic conditions for the semi-arid and arid rangelands in the south of the Territory. It is argued that further integrated research with regional climatic modelling, field ecology, and land use dynamic modelling using a geographical information system (GIS) is required to understand the ecological impact of greenhouse warming in the Northern Territory.