For whom will the Bayesian agents vote?

被引:4
作者
Caticha, Nestor [1 ]
Cesar, Jonatas [1 ]
Vicente, Renato [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Fis, Dept Fis Geral, CP 66318, BR-05315970 Sao Paulo, Brazil
[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Math & Stat, Dept Appl Math, Sao Paulo, Brazil
基金
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词
sociophysics; agent-based model; Bayesian learning; moral foundations; opinion dynamics;
D O I
10.3389/fphy.2015.00025
中图分类号
O4 [物理学];
学科分类号
0702 ;
摘要
Within an agent-based model where moral classifications are socially learned, we ask if a population of agents behaves in a way that may be compared with conservative or liberal positions in the real political spectrum. We assume that agents first experience a formative period, in which they adjust their learning style acting as supervised Bayesian adaptive learners. The formative phase is followed by a period of social influence by reinforcement learning. By comparing data generated by the agents with data from a sample of 15,000 Moral Foundation questionnaires we found the following. (1) The number of information exchanges in the formative phase correlates positively with statistics identifying liberals in the social influence phase. This is consistent with recent evidence that connects the dopamine receptor D4-7R gene, political orientation and early age social clique size. (2) The learning algorithms that result from the formative phase vary in the way they treat novelty and corroborative information with more conservative-like agents treating it more equally than liberal-like agents. This is consistent with the correlation between political affiliation and the Openness personality trait reported in the literature. (3) Under the increase of a model parameter interpreted as an external pressure, the statistics of liberal agents resemble more those of conservative agents, consistent with reports on the consequences of external threats on measures of conservatism. We also show that in the social influence phase liberal-like agents readapt much faster than conservative-like agents when subjected to changes on the relevant set of moral issues. This suggests a verifiable dynamical criterium for attaching liberal or conservative labels to groups.
引用
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页数:14
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