THE VALUE OF SERUM LEVELS OF ESTRADIOL, PROGESTERONE AND BETA-HUMAN CHORIONIC-GONADOTROPIN IN THE PREDICTION OF EARLY-PREGNANCY LOSS

Serial serum levels of oestradiol, progesterone and the beta-subunit of human chorionic gonadotrophin (beta-HCG) had been performed in 674 cycles in women conceiving a singleton pregnancy, either spontaneously or as a result of assisted conception. To determine the value of these estimations in the prediction of early pregnancy loss, frequency distribution curves and receiver operating characteristic curves were derived for the respective hormones measured at weeks 4 - 7 of gestation and expressed as multiples of the median (MoM) values in pregnancies occurring both with and without ovarian stimulation. A cut-off level of beta-HCG <0.5 MoM gave a sensitivity of 68% with an odds ratio of 4.0 at 7 weeks in unstimulated cycles in the prediction of pregnancy failure. A cut-off of 0.8 MoM for progesterone gave a sensitivity of 59% and an odds ratio of 2.8. Prospective hormonal monitoring during the early weeks of gestation may be useful in the prediction of early pregnancy loss and should help to avoid the emergency presentation of some of the complications of early pregnancy, in particular ectopic pregnancy. The limitations imposed by multiple pregnancies and uncertain gestation due to menstrual data may restrict the use of this strategy to specialist fertility centres.