OPTIMIZATION AND SIMULATION OF MULTIPLE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS

An implicitly stochastic optimization scheme previously described in the literature is extended to consider multiple reservoir systems. The scheme comprises a three-step cyclic procedure that attempts to improve the initial operating rules for the system. The system requires two sets of contemporaneous streamflow series to be used in the simulation model and synthetically generated series are required for this purpose. The three-step cycle begins with an optimization of reservoir operations for a given set of streamflows. The optimal operations from the solution are then analyzed in a regression procedure to obtain a set of operating rules. These rules are evaluated in a simulation model using a different set of data. Based on the simulation results, bounds are placed on operations and cycle returns to the optimization model. The cycle continues until one of the stopping rules is satisfied. The use of the scheme to generate operating rules for multiple reservoir systems is illustrated for a two-river system under a set of 28 different conditions.