REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING USING A STOCHASTIC RAINFALL GENERATOR

被引：39
|
作者：
LARDET, P
OBLED, C
机构：
[1] INST NATL POLYTECH GRENOBLE,ETUDE TRANSFERTS HYDROL & ENVIRONNEMENT LAB,F-38041 GRENOBLE,FRANCE
[2] UNIV NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE,DEPT CIVIL ENGN,NEWCASTLE TYNE NE1 7RU,TYNE & WEAR,ENGLAND
来源：
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY | 1994年 / 162卷 / 3-4期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1016/0022-1694(94)90238-0
中图分类号：
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号：
0813 ;
摘要：
This paper concerns the problem of extending the lead-time of hood forecasts on small catchments when using a lumped rainfall-runoff model. It shows how a stochastic rainfall generator, based on renewal processes, has been linked to a rainfall-runoff model for the Mediterranean catchment of the Garden d'Anduze (545 km(2)). This linked system provides future scenarios conditioned by past observed rainfalls and includes a confidence interval calculation for the flood forecasts. It is reliable 4 h ahead, but could be useful for decisionmaking beyond this period. Although already operational, the proposed system could be improved if better rainfall forecasts were available.
引用
收藏
页码：391 / 408
页数：18
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