In this article the method of the comparative prognosis is used to compare the transitions from an authoritarian system to a democratic one in the countries of Southern Europe and Latin America with those of Central/Eastern Europe. Since such a comparison makes more sense in some areas than in others, a distinction is made between the realm of the nation-state, of economics and of politics. The aim of this exercise is to show what the countries of Central/Eastern Europe can learn from the experiences of the other two regions. What are the chances, but also what are the pitfalls of such a rapid transition to democracy and a market economy? Much attention is given here to the role of outsiders, and especially to the USA and the EC countries.
