Numerical Simulation of Propagation of the Black Sea and the Azov Sea Tsunami Through the Kerch Strait

The present paper deals with the potential strong tsunamigenic earthquakes with the sources localized in the Black and Azov seas at the entrance and exit of the Kerch Strait, respectively. Since, at present time, the tsunami hazards are usually assessed for the critical earthquake magnitude values, potential strong earthquakes with a magnitude M = 7 are studied. The seismic sources of elliptical form are considered. When choosing the source location in the northeast of the Black Sea, the most seismically dangerous areas of the basin under consideration are allowed for. Numerical simulation is carried out within the framework of the nonlinear shallow water equations with the dissipative effects taken into account. Two possible scenarios of tsunami propagation at the chosen source locations are analyzed. The wave characteristics are obtained for a tsunami wave motion both from the Black Sea through the Kerch Strait to the Azov Sea. The symmetrical problem for a tsunami wave propagation from the Azov Sea through the Kerch Strait to the Black Sea is also considered. Spectral analysis of the tsunami wave field is carried out for the studied basin. The wave and energy characteristics of the tsunami waves in the area of the bridge across the Kerch Strait are subjected to the detailed examination and assessment.