Do Balkan Countries Have a European Future? An Analysis of Real Economic Convergence, 1989-2005

The purpose of this paper is to assess the economic performance of Balkan countries compared to the European Union over the period 1989-2005. We use three economic indicators of income, productivity and employment. The analysis rests on the test of the real convergence process of these indicators. The results show evidence of real convergence (i.e., convergence hypothesis and reduction of inequalities) of labour productivity in Balkans, but they are mixed for income per capita and employment rate. The development gap between the Balkans and the European Union, which has widened considerably in the 1991-1993 period, shows a sign of recovery after this date. However, the gap remains very deep and the process of catching up with the European Union is too slow.