A NEW ROLE FOR THE ROC ON TAIWAN IN THE POST-COLD-WAR ERA

This paper examines the scope, means, and perspectives of Taiwan's ''flexible diplomacy'' since 1987-88, thereby analyzing successes and backlashes in different parts of the world, the internal evolution of foreign policy thinking, and Taiwan's future international status. It concludes that Taiwan cannot hope to extend official diplomatic relations beyond certain developing countries and that any gains in this respect will probably be neutralized by losses elsewhere. Taiwan will have to face the truth that both formal and informal relations are more a result of economic attraction than of political affinity. Taiwan's continued prosperity is its main asset in keeping the door open to the outside world. Because of their history of pragmatism, the East Asian countries justify most optimism in this regard. The United States remains the island's only security guarantor, and the Taipei-Washington relationship is one area where democratization might have a part to play in the long run. Taiwan's foreign policy success depends on the flexibility of its approach. This, in turn, depends on the degree to which de facto independence can be maintained and enlarged.