AN ECONOMIC-ANALYSIS OF THE PREVENTION OF PESTE-DES-PETITS RUMINANTS IN NIGERIAN GOATS

Recent serological evidence and clinical observations have indicated that small-ruminant plague (peste des petits ruminants, PPR) may be a major constraint to small-ruminant production in the pastoral zone of central Niger. In 1986, the Government of Niger made a decision to vaccinate the national small-ruminant herd against PPR. In order to determine the potential effectiveness of this decision, a 5-year dynamic herd model of the national goat herd of Niger was constructed. The age and sex demographics for this model were based on data collected from the 30 herds used in the PPR point prevalence survey. Population and production parameters used in this model were based on data collected in several studies of goat production in Niger. Economic analyses (net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR)) of the benefits of the PPR vaccination programme were made, and sensitivity analyses on various discount rates, vaccination costs, and animal market values were done. The PPR vaccination programme instituted by the Government of Niger appears to be highly beneficial with an anticipated NPV return in 5 years of 24 million dollars (IRR > 900%) following an investment of 2 million dollars; there would be an anticipated minimum NPV return of 14 million dollars with an investment of 10 million dollars (IRR > 100%) if the cost of the vaccination programme were to increase five-fold.