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LIMITS TO PREDICTABILITY IN A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC NOISE
被引：41
作者：
KEEMAN, R
POWER, SB
机构：
[1] Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, 3001
关键词：
D O I：
10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.00014.x
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ;
070601 ;
摘要：
A coupled-ocean atmosphere model with demonstrated skill in ENSO prediction is used to examine limits to predictability due to stochastic momentum forcing from the atmosphere. Previous estimates of predictability limits in coupled models may be overly optimistic because of the absence of realistic atmospheric noise in the intermediate atmospheric model used. It is found that unavoidable error grows rapidly with a time scale of 4 or so months. It then saturates at a level around 0.5-degrees-C for the Nino 3 region.
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页码：529 / 540
页数：12
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