SEISMIC HAZARD OF EGYPT

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude, M(max), annual activity rate, lambda, and b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 3 from the time interval 320-1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt. b-values of 1.2 +/- 0.1 and 1.0 +/- 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 +/- 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 +/- 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 +/- 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 +/- 0.3 for a rime span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.