Demographic brakes of the economy

被引:3
作者
Vishnevsky, Anatoly G. [1 ]
Scherbakova, Ekaterina M. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Natl Res Univ Higher Sch Econ, Moscow, Russia
[2] RAS, Inst Econ Forecasting, Moscow, Russia
来源
VOPROSY EKONOMIKI | 2018年 / 06期
关键词
Russia; population growth; natural increase; net migration; population aging; aging of labor force; retirement age;
D O I
10.32609/0042-8736-2018-6-48-70
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
The article examines the features of the newest stage of the demographic evolution of Russia against the backdrop of other countries at similar stages of the demographic transition. It is shown that until recently long-term demographic trends favored Russia's economic development, but now the country is entering a long period of unfavorable demographic changes for its economy. The cessation of growth of the Russian population, the reduction in the working-age population and its aging, and the increase in the dependency ratio will have a deterrent effect on economic development and at the same time make it more difficult to solve social problems. In particular, these factors will create greater problems for the pension system for people older than working age. The issue of using the migration resource to mitigate the negative consequences of demographic changes is discussed.
引用
收藏
页码:48 / 70
页数:23
相关论文
共 11 条
[1]  
Aiyar Shekhar., 2016, IMPACT WORKFORCE AGI
[2]  
[Anonymous], 2016, HLTH GLANC EUR 2016
[3]   Population and economic growth [J].
Becker, GS ;
Glaeser, EL ;
Murphy, KM .
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 1999, 89 (02) :145-149
[4]  
Dixon S., 2003, LABOUR MARKET TRENDS, V111, P67, DOI 10.1.1.460.6815
[5]  
Kassebaum NJ, 2016, LANCET, V388, P1603, DOI [10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31460-X, 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31470-2]
[6]  
Kuznets S., 1960, DEMOGRAPHIC EC CHANG, P324
[7]  
UN DESA, 2017, WORLD POP PROSP 2017
[8]  
Vishnevsky A., 2015, DEMOGR REV, V2, P4, DOI 10.17323/demreview.v2i5.5581
[9]  
Vishnevsky A. G., 1970, DEMOGRAFICHESKIE TET, P98
[10]  
Vishnevsky A. G, 2005, SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC, V2, P5