OLDER ADULTS - THE NEXT SUICIDE EPIDEMIC

Suicide rates historically and currently are highest by age among those over the age of 65. Predictions of markedly higher rates for future older adults have been advanced. Possible alternative factors that might produce lower risk among future elderly Americans are presented and it is argued that future trends are uncertain. Predictions of elderly suicide are made based on an assumption of stable rather than changing rates. Constant rates produce estimates of more than twice the current number of suicides and a proportionate increase in the number of suicides from one in five for the 1980s to one in three by the year 2030. The elderly are and likely will be a group with high suicide risk. Immediate efforts to lower elderly suicide risk and avert high future rates are recommended.