INCLUSION OF WEATHER EFFECTS IN COMPOSITE SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION USING SEQUENTIAL SIMULATION

The studies reported in the paper describe the development of a new technique to accommodate the modelling of weather events in composite system reliability evaluation using a sequential simulation technique. Although considerable effort has been made in recent years to include weather impacts, all the currently available techniques neglect the moving or traversing nature of weather events. The technique described not only takes into account a comprehensive range of weather severities and attributes, it also accommodates the traversing nature of weather events. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach travels through time chronologically, and this unique concept allows it to be used for tracking the effects of nonstationary weather events within the evaluation procedure of transmission systems. Eventually this approach will lead to an improved representation of a composite system. The approach is demonstrated by sensitivity studies conducted on the IEEE Reliability Test System. These results show the applicability of the algorithms for evaluating the reliability of a composite power system.