FORWARD EXCHANGE-RATES IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM

This paper develops a two-country, overlapping-generations model of an economy with a forward market in foreign exchange. The equilibrium forward rate exhibits the conventional decomposition into the expected future spot rate, a convexity term and a risk premium. Unlike partial equilibrium models, however, the model expresses these terms as functions of the primitive structural parameters of the economy. It thus provides insights into the structure of the premium which may facilitate interpretation of empirical studies of the forward markets. In particular, it suggests that time-varying risk premia may arise from changes in the distribution of wealth between countries over time. © 1991.