PREDICTABILITY OF IONOSPHERIC VARIATIONS FOR QUIET AND DISTURBED CONDITIONS

Empirical models can predict the average monthly behaviour of the ionosphere and allow for day-to-day variability. Significant departures from these predicted conditions can be forecast using a range of solar, magnetic and ionospheric observations. The main improvements needed in the prediction models is that they should be made more precise, by introducing variable prediction limits, and should be improved by harnessing the impressive power of the current physical models so that ionospheric data can be assimilated in near real time. This strategic objective will lead to ionospheric weather forecasting.