DRYLAND PASTURE IMPROVEMENT GIVEN CLIMATIC RISK

This paper describes how a model of a dryland farming system can assist pasture breeders to identify profitable opportunities for pasture improvement. The model describes in some detail the dryland farming system of the eastern wheatbelt of Western Australia. The nature of pasture production on a particular soil class is examined Optimization procedures identify the farm management changes and profits that result from incremental changes in pasture production on that soil class. This information reveals that pasture produced early in the growing season is far more valuable than pasture produced late in the growing season and that risk-averse farmers benefit more from a given increase in pasture production than do risk-neutral farmers. The agronomic traits of pasture that allow greater production early in the growing season are briefly discussed.