A SURVEY OF MODERN RUSSIAN FERTILITY

This article based on unpublished data presents birth rate trends during this century and analyses in greater detail the fertility of cohorts born after 1910. During this period, fertility in Russia changed from being amongst the highest in Europe (nearly three children per woman) to one of the lowest (1.8 children per woman in the cohort of 1945). A recent upturn has resulted in a final value of two children for the cohort of 1955. As in other countries, the reduction in the number of families with three ou more children has resulted in a general fertility decline. But births of first and second orders have been exceptionally stable. This is the force of Russian fertility. It has progressed from a pattern of highly diverse family sizes to one in which the one or two-child family model has been widely adopted. The article also shows the family policy measures adopted in 1981 and attempts to assess their effects. Finally, it analyses the fall in fertility after 1987. Although this fall was, in the first instance, clearly a counter-effect of the expectations aroused by the measures of 1981, it is not possible to exclude the hypothesis that the recent fertility decline reflects a 'wait and see' attitude among couples faced by a complex situation in Russia.