A DYNAMIC-MODEL OF SOIL-SALINITY AND DRAINAGE GENERATION IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE - A FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY ANALYSIS

This paper presents a dynamic model of irrigated agriculture that accounts for drainage generation and salinity accumulation. Critical model relationships involving crop production, soil salinity, and irrigation drainage are based on newly estimated functions derived from lysimeter field tests. The model allocates land and water inputs over time based on an intertemporal profit maximization objective function and soil salinity accumulation process. The model is applied to conditions in the San Joaquin Valley of California, where environmental degradation from irrigation drainage has become a policy issue. Findings indicate that in the absence of regulation, drainage volumes increase over time before reaching a steady state as increased quantities of water are allocated to leaching soil salts. The model is used to evaluate alternative drainage abatement scenarios involving drainage quotas and taxes, water supply quotas and taxes, and irrigation technology subsidies. In our example, direct drainage policies are more cost-effective in reducing drainage than policies operating indirectly through surface water use, although differences in cost efficiency are relatively small. In some cases, efforts to control drainage may result in increased soil salinity accumulation, with implications for long-term cropland productivity. While policy adjustments may alter the direction and duration of convergence to a steady state, findings suggest that a dynamic model specification may not be necessary due to rapid convergence to a comon steady state under selected scenarios.