Cyclical fluctuations in Mexico and in the State of Mexico in the context of NAFTA: which are the facts?

This article analyses cyclic fluctuations in the State of Mexico and Mexico from the point of view of the growth cycles in the period between 1993 and 2005. The comparison of our results with those published beforehand indicates changes in the magnitude and nature of the relationships of the cycle as well as in several macroeconomic variables, which suggests the possibility of a structural change during the first half of the nineties. Furthermore, the cycles in Mexico and the State of Mexico are very similar, in particular in their relationship with national variables. The State variables have, at best, a moderate relationship with the indicator of the cycle and they never precede it. This can be evidence of the importance of the national clashes in the State cyclic fluctuations.