Experimental Dynamical Forecast of an MJO Event Observed during TOGA-COARE Period

With a hybrid atmosphere-ocean coupled model we carried out an experimental forecast of a well documented Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event that was observed during the period of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE). The observed event, originated in the western Indian Ocean around 6 January 1993, moved eastward with a phase speed of about 6.2 m s(-1) and reached the dateline around February 1. The hybrid coupled model reasonably forecasts the MJO initiation in the western Indian Ocean, but the predicted MJO event propagates too slow (similar to 4.4 m s(-1)). Results from previous observational studies using unprecedented humidity profiles obtained by NASA Aqua/AIRS satellite suggested that two potential physical processes may be responsible for this model caveat. After improving the cumulus parameterization scheme based on the observa-tions, the model is able to forecast the same event one month ahead. Further sensitivity experiment confirms that the speed-up of model MJO propagation is primarily due to the improved convective scheme. Further, air-sea coupling plays an important role in maintaining the intensity of the predicted MJO. The results here suggest that MJO prediction skill is sensitive to model cumulus parameterization and air-sea coupling.