Simplified Early Predictors of Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study

Background: To propose simple tests for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), which are accurate and could be performed at emergency departments and outpatient clinics. Methods: A prospective study was performed on 149 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. Body mass index (BMI), plain chest radiograph, blood biochemical data were obtained at the time of admission; white cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts, hematocrit level, prothrombin time, PaO2, creatinine, calcium, blood sugar, total protein, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, amylase, lipase and C-reaction protein were determined. Patients were graded into severe and mild acute pancreatitis based on CT Balthazar grading system. Results: Twenty-seven patients were diagnosed to have SAP and 122 patients considered mild acute pancreatitis. Comparing parameters between both groups; significant factors (P < 0.05) were blood sugar level, haematocrit level, BMI and presence of pleural effusion in chest X-ray. The hematocrit at admission and at approximately 24 hours was significantly higher among patients with SAP. Twenty-two of 27 cases of severe disease and only 10 of 122 cases of mild acute pancreatitis diagnosed to have pleural effusion (P < 0.001). Conclusions: BMI, blood glucose >= 190 mg/dL, hematocrit level >= 43 % and pleural effusion detected by plain chest radiograph are simple tests and provide significant predictive power for clinical decision-making.