PROBABILITY-MODELS TO ASSESS THE SAFETY OF FOODS WITH RESPECT TO CLOSTRIDIUM-BOTULINUM

The effectiveness of a preservative system to prevent the growth of Clostridium botulinum can be expressed as the probability (P) that not even a single spore will be able to grow and produce toxin. Commercial canning processes for foods have been based upon this principle since the early 1920s. The safety of many current food marketing concepts depends on product formulation, processing, packaging and distribution variables. Direct measurement of C. botulinum growth in a food system is difficult. Researchers have relied upon bioassay for botulinum toxin detection and Most Probable Number (MPN) techniques to quantify C. botulinum growth in experimental food systems. The methods used to estimate P for a single spore to initiate growth will lead to a discussion on the use of P as a dependent variable in predictive models. Modeling the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic processing variables on food safety will be presented.