ESTIMATION OF PROSTATIC GROWTH USING SERIAL PROSTATE-SPECIFIC ANTIGEN MEASUREMENTS IN MEN WITH AND WITHOUT PROSTATE DISEASE

Prostate growth curves were estimated from serial prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements on frozen sera in three groups of men: (a) 16 men with no prostatic disease by urological history and examination; (b) 20 men with a histological diagnosis of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) who had undergone simple prostatectomy; and (c) 18 men with a histological diagnosis of prostate cancer. The median number of repeated PSA measurements over an 8- to 26-yr period prior to histological diagnosis or exclusion of prostate disease was eight and 11 for noncancer and cancer subjects, respectively. Predicted rates of change in PSA (PSA velocity) were linear and curvilinear for control and BPH subjects, respectively. Subjects with cancer demonstrated both a linear and an exponential phase of PSA velocity. Based on time to double PSA, we estimated the epithelial doubling time for men without prostate disease to range from 54 +/- 13 yr at age 40 to 84 +/- 13 yr at age 70. For men with BPH, doubling times ranged from 2 +/- 13 yr at age 40 to 17 +/- 5 yr at age 85. Subjects with local/regional and advanced/metastatic cancer had similar PSA doubling times of 2.4 +/- 0.6 yr and 1.8 +/- 0.2 yr, respectively. These data are consistent with what is known about prostatic growth with age in men without prostate disease and BPH, and the kinetics of prostate cancer growth. Estimates of prostatic growth rate from changes in PSA may be useful clinically in management of men with prostate disease.