COST-EFFECTIVE FORECASTING - LESSONS MY COMPUTER-PROGRAMS NEVER TAUGHT ME

This paper derives lessons about the processes of forecasting in consulting situations where time is a scarce resource. These lessons about cost-effective forecasting are illustrated in a disguised composite consulting project which takes far longer than originally forecast. The lessons cover aspects of forecasting such as the political implications of forecasts, why several different types of forecasts should be combined into a final forecast, and why the Delphi technique is not a cost-effective way of making judgmental forecasts. © 1990.