EXPLORING COMPLEX POLICY QUESTIONS USING THE POLICY DELPHI - A MULTI-ROUND, INTERACTIVE SURVEY METHOD

The purpose of this paper is to outline the research strategy used to explore a complex policy question relating to climate change and water management. The research strategy used had two components: a multi-round, interactive survey of water users and managers in a watershed, followed by a workshop attended by a small core group. The survey technique used was the policy Delphi, which is distinguished from its cousin, the conventional Delphi. The two techniques share the name 'Delphi', but little else. Strengths and weaknesses of the policy Delphi are highlighted in the paper. Strengths include the fact that the survey can be used to facilitate interaction in groups of up to 50 people. Arguments around policy issues can be identified and evaluated by the respondent group. Importantly, this can be achieved at little cost, relative to alternatives such as workshops. An important shortcoming of the policy Delphi is a tendency to breadth but not depth in the survey product. Therefore, among the guidelines offered is the suggestion that policy Delphi surveys should be used as precursors to workshops or interviews. In the study upon which this paper was based, the policy Delphi survey was used to identify and evaluate in a preliminary fashion appropriate responses to the problem of atmospheric warming. A workshop, building on the survey, was used to focus a core group's attention on implementation.