OPTIMAL SCHEDULING IN SHRIMP MARICULTURE - A STOCHASTIC GROWING INVENTORY PROBLEM

Appropriate management tools are required for the successful introduction of advanced intensive technology in shrimp mariculture. This paper presents a stochastic dynamic decision model for evaluating the potential of the round pond technology practiced at the Oceanic Institute in Hawaii. The model provides the optimal stocking and harvesting schedules for a shrimp pond using a set of intra- and interseasonal decision rules. These rules are expressed as cutoff revenues when both prices and weights are considered random and as cutoff prices and cutoff weights when only prices or weights are considered random. The pond is not harvested if the current realized revenue is less than the cutoff revenue. The model simulates optimal scheduling using a set of 1986 shrimp prices for the case of random prices. Net profits are approximately doubled using the optimal schedules compared to conventional fixed scheduling schemes. The model also evaluates the economics of controlled environment. © 1990 American Agricultural Economics Association.