Unruly Divorces? Why Do Coalitions in the German Lander End Prematurely?

Why do coalitions in Germany at the Land level end before they have reached their maximum period in office? To answer this question all cases of coalition break ups between 1949 and 2012 are discussed. Our approach has been to define categories of causes. The dichotomy suggested by Saalfeld which distinguishes between structural and institutional reasons for the premature end of Land coalitions, on the one hand (the territory of formal coalition theory), and events-based reasons, on the other, is useful. A quantitative summary of our results shows that events are more important than rules.