THE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTABILITY OF SEA-ICE

Statistical analyses and model experiments suggest that the sea-ice cover is predictable weeks to months in advance. As such, it is one of the most highly predictable components of the climate system. The thermodynamic mechanisms by which this predictability can be realized are examined. It is found that the predictability is dependent on the differential growth/decay of sea ice as a function of thickness. In winter or year-round, for thin ice, the growth/decay rates are a strong function of thickness, which gives a relatively short period of predictability, though still long compared to the atmosphere. In summer, or year-round for thick ice, growth/decay rates are only weak functions of thickness and the period of predictability is comparatively long.