Econometric Analysis of the Factors of Long-term Unemployment in Poland

Long-term unemployment that is lasting more than twelve months, a phenomenon described by the theory of economics as a manifestation of a permanent imbalance between labor supply and demand for labor. In fact, it brings the same negative effects both in terms of economic, social and individual sphere. As a result, it leads to the formation of pejorative phenomena and behavior. To counter these negative phenomena, public employment services in its terms of reference have the early detection of people at risk of long-term unemployment and to take preventive measures. The purpose of this article is to present logit econometric models defining the factors which have a significant impact on long-term unemployment. These models can be used to predict the probability of long-term unemployment at the micro level, ie for a single person. Due to the fact that the survey methodology are two definitions of unemployment - the first by the methodology of the Labour Force Survey, the second according to the law on employment promotion and labor market institutions, one presented two models describing the probability of long-term unemployment and a comparative analysis.