PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES IN POLAND

The climate change projections for Poland are consistent in foreseeing overall temperature increase in the coming decades. Precipitation is projected to decrease in summer (though this finding is not robust, being model-dependent) and to increase in winter. It is expected that the occurrence of climate extremes over Poland may change in the future, warmer climate. In this study, daily temperature and precipitation data from the Hadley Centre HadRM3-PRECIS regional model simulations (for the SRES A2 scenario in three model experiments) in Poland were used to study temperature and precipitation extremes defined according to the specification made in the Integrated Project entitled "Extreme meteorological and hydrological events". Climate extremes in the control period, 1961-1990, were compared with those in the projection period, 2071-2100.