NONDETERMINISTIC NETWORKING METHODS

Several probabilistic methods use risk analysis for construction networking. In this study, the writers compare and evaluate five nondeterministic methods: (1) Program evaluation review technique (PERT); (2) probabilistic network evaluation technique (PNET); (3) narrow reliability bounds (NRB), (4) Monte Carlo simulation (MCS); and (5) simplified Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS). To compare the five methods, the writers solved 31 networks using each of the methods. The results obtained by each method were compared and evaluated based on the survival function and computer time. The writers found that PERT is the simplest method and yields the most optimistic results, while MCS and SMCS produce the most conservative result. The gap between the survival function obtained with PERT and that obtained with the two simulation methods (MCS and SMCS) is wider for positively skewed distributions of network activities.