Spatial-temporal differentiation of the carrying capacity of cities: a case study of Hunan Province

Research on the carrying capacity of urban land has practical significance for the spatial distribution of industry and population, the control of development intensity, and regional ecological sustainability. In this paper, we use 14 cities in Hunan Province, China, as a representative example to construct a spatial-temporal evaluation model that encompasses three domains (economic, social and ecological) which jointly determine the land carrying capacity. We define and measure a range of performance indicators for each domain, and use the entropy method to determine the weights to be assigned to each performance indicator. The resulting carrying capacity index is calculated for each city in 2005 and in 2010. This leads to a ranking of cities that is verified by cluster analysis. The results show a clear imbalance between different cities: the carrying capacity index increases when moving from peripheral areas towards the central city, while there is further polarization of this spatial imbalance over time. Overall, the land carrying capacity in Hunan Province has become weaker in 2010 compared with 2005. The social fabric has not kept pace with the rapid regional economic development. This, together with apparent ignorance about the importance of the protection of ecological quality, has created an increasingly worrying situation.