Using Momentum Analysis to Explain and Forecast the Outcome of International Negotiations

Drawing on the literature of technical analysis in financial markets, this article introduces an original framework and methodology for explaining and forecasting the outcome of international negotiations based on two concepts: the relative strength negotiation index (RSNI) and the negotiation contextual conduciveness index (NCCI). By comparing the parties' levels of interest in the negotiations, RSNI serves as a powerful indicator of the direction and intensity of the momentum accompanying international negotiations. NCCI, on the other hand, helps to explain why certain potential breakthroughs may fail to materialize. These insights are being asessed empirically in the case of climate change negotiations, first, by testing retrospectively the viability of the model to explain the outcomes of past climate meetings and, second, by forecasting the likelihood that a breakthrough will be achieved in the next rounds of climate talks.