Wizards under Uncertainty: Cognitive Biases, Threat Assessment, and Misjudgments in Policy Making

This article explores how several subtle issues concerning political judgments raised in Harry Potter are reflected in contemporary policy making. Using Rowling's story as a starting point, we show that findings on systematic errors in judgment-or cognitive biases-studied in psychology and behavioral economics can lead to repeated misjudgments that obstruct sound policy prioritization. We examine several cognitive principles that (1) influence how decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty and (2) explain why some predictions underpinning those decisions can run quite seriously awry. These operate in both Harry's fictional world and the current policy approaches to climate change, counterterrorism, obesity, and immigration. We emphasize the need for policy makers and citizens to be more acutely aware of the kinds and scope of repeated errors in judgment that rational choice models cannot fully explain or predict. Finally, we note how cognitive bias might be potentially reduced in certain collective decision-making strategies.