The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Trade Balance in the Short and Long Run The Case of Vietnam

被引：11

作者：

Pham Thi Tuyet Trinh ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Banking Univ, Fac Int Econ, 39 Ham Nghi St,Dist 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

来源：

JOURNAL OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIES | 2014年 / 31卷 / 03期

关键词：

real exchange rate; trade balance; autoregressive distributed lag; J-curve effect; Vietnam;

D O I：

10.1355/ae31-3f

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the short- and long-run impact of the real exchange rate on trade balance in Vietnam from 2000 to 2010. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is used to explore the long-run impact, and a corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) based on a long-run cointegration equation examines the impact on trade balance when a real depreciation of the VND has occurred. An Impulse response function based on the ECM exhibits that trade balance takes on a J-curve pattern in the event of a permanent depreciation.

引用

页码：432 / 452

页数：21

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