Lumber Quality Model: The theory

A new model for predicting moisture content, distortion and shrinkage distribution after lumber drying has been designed, implemented and tested. The model was implemented using Monte Carlo simulation, and it involves three empirical equations that were developed on the basis of experimental data. The model is referred as the Lumber Quality Model, and it is designed to be calibrated by knowing the initial and final moisture content, distortion and shrinkage distribution for a reference drying run. After calibration, the model can be used to predict the same information for other hypothetical drying scenarios. The present study explains the theoretical aspects of the model and the methodology for implementation. The model was validated with experimental data measured in a laboratory kiln. A full-scale industrial validation will be reported in a future paper.