EXCHANGE RISK SENSITIVITY AND ITS DETERMINANTS - A FIRM AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS OF US MULTINATIONALS

We develop a model of firm valuation to examine the exchange risk sensitivity of 409 U.S. multinational firms during the 1978-89 period. In contrast to previous studies, we find that exchange rate fluctuations do affect firm value. More specifically, we find that approximately sixty percent of firms with significant exchange risk exposure gain from a depreciation of the dollar. We also find that cross-sectional differences in exchange risk sensitivity are linked to key firm-specific operational variables (i.e., foreign operating profits, sales, and assets). Although we find limited support for exchange risk sensitivity when we aggregate the data into 20 SIC-based industry groups, we do observe some cross-sectional and inter-temporal variation in the exchange risk coefficients. Subperiod analysis reveals higher number of firms with significant exchange risk sensitivity during the weak-dollar period as compared to the strong-dollar period.